By Salam Rajesh
The World Meteorological Organization’s Global Seasonal Climate Update 2026 certainly has news to make people sit up and take notice of the climate and weather anomalies later this year and into early next year.
The WMO’s latest weather report indicates that for the 2026 season, multi-model ensemble forecasts project a nearly universal global dominance for enhancement in probabilitiesfor above-normal temperatures over landmasses.
In the northern hemisphere, a large increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures covers Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian Subcontinent, eastern Asia, western parts of North America, Central America, and the Caribbean.
A weaker enhancement in probabilities of above-normal temperatures is indicated over parts of northern Asia, as well as northwestern and eastern regions of North America.
In the southern hemisphere, a strong enhancement in probabilities for above-normal temperatures is centered over southern Africa, between the equator and over South America, and across New Zealand.
Over Australia, a moderate increase in the probability for above-normal temperature is forecast across southern and central parts of the continent.
In the tropics, a large increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures covers equatorial Africa, South America, and the northern part of the Maritime Continent.
Over the ocean basins, forecasts reflect a footprint of the rapidly intensifying El Niño event. Extreme probabilities (exceeding 80%) for above-normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) dominate the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line, where the core of the warm region displays maximum model consistency.
A widespread tendency for above-normal temperatures also covers the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. In contrast, a region of below- to near-normal temperature probabilities is predicted across North Atlantic.
The WMO forecasts project well-structured, large tilts in rainfall probabilities, exhibiting a classic, strong atmospheric response to Pacific El Niño. The most dominant feature of the 2026 outlook is a strong enhancement in the probability for above-normal rainfall stretching across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line.
The core for this rainfall signal is flanked by an extensive region of below-normal rainfall probabilities. This broad dry signal encompasses widespread marine zones, manifesting as strong enhancements in the probability for below-normal rainfall over both the tropical Indian Ocean and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.
The Indian Subcontinent features an enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall. To its northwest, there is an enhancement in probabilities for above-normal rainfall extending into parts of Central Asia and northern regions of the Arabian Peninsula.
Across equatorial Africa, the Greater Horn of Africa shows an enhanced probability for above-normal rainfall, with an enhancement in probability for below-normal rainfall to its west. Flanking this equatorial belt, a weak enhancement in the probability for above-normal rainfall is indicated over both the far northern and southern parts of Africa.
Over Australia, an enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall dominates over the southern and eastern regions.
Over North America, there is an enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall covering the southern parts of Central America and the Caribbean, supported by high model consistency.
There is an enhancement in the probability for above-normal rainfall over the western parts of North America. In South America, a robust enhancement in probability for below-normal rainfall is centered over the northwest, continuing steadily along the northern coastal areas to the east. Farther south, a branch of enhanced probability for above-normal rainfall extends across southeastern South America.
Across Europe, an enhancement in the probability for above-normal rainfall covers the southern parts of Europe, whereas an enhanced probability for below-normal rainfall is predicted across northern Europe.
For the laymen, the projection indicates widely varying surface temperature and rainfall pattern globally later this year, being aligned with the Super El Nino projections.
While some parts of the globe would be experiencing warmer temperature well above the normal conditions, other parts could be facing cooler or colder temperature. Similarly, while some parts of the globe would be receiving heavy to extreme heavy rainfall, other parts could experience below normal rainfall, perhaps resulting in rainfall deficits and drought conditions (and probably leading to famine conditions).
The movement of the Super El Nino pattern from east to west across the Pacific, and the weakening trade winds is being seen as influencing these varying temperatures and rainfall models.
So, while the western and the central parts of the Indian subcontinent soaks in sweltering heat, and drought-like conditions, the eastern and the northeastern parts are presently experiencing cooler weather from intermittent rains induced by cyclonic formations in the Bay of Bengal, perhaps as a sequence of the Super El Nino phenomena.
In short, the WMO weather projections between October now and later up to February early next year indicate a pattern that is not going to be comfortable for most people in all of the continents on Earth.
Whatsoever the indications are, the foremost casualty is going to be the agriculture sector. Either the crops are going to fail owing to extreme heat and drought, or they could suffer under the brunt of heavy to extreme heavy rains (and floods).
And finally, it could mean deficit in crop production later this year and into early next year, with consequently sharp increase in the prices of the agricultural produces. In all probability, this would hit farmers, rural economies and consumers alike across the globe in the months to come. Certainly, bad news to expect for everyone, irrespective of where one lives.
